Our monthly read on what moved investment markets over the past month and what it could mean looking ahead.
In this issue
April was shaped by the conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy prices. We look at why the Bank of England chose to hold rates, why inflation is proving stubborn, and the warning that the UK faces a sharper growth hit than the rest of the G7. There is also a read on a surprise rebound in retail sales set against weakening consumer confidence, and a jobs market that is harder to read than the headline numbers suggest.
The month in numbers
With Brent crude at a four year high, the Bank held its rate at 3.75 per cent and signalled it would act forcefully if the energy shock drags on. Inflation climbed to 3.3 per cent, with services prices running hotter at 4.5 per cent. The IMF handed the UK the biggest growth downgrade of any G7 economy, cutting its 2026 forecast to 0.8 per cent and pointing to our heavy reliance on imported gas. Retail sales beat expectations, helped by a jump in fuel buying, yet consumer confidence slid to its lowest in over three years, which tells you most of the story about how households are feeling.
