Our monthly read on what moved investment markets over the past month and what it could mean looking ahead.
In this issue
March brought the Chancellor’s Spring Statement and a downgraded growth forecast, with warnings that the Middle East conflict could hit the UK harder than most major economies. We cover the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates on hold, inflation holding at 3.0 per cent, and signs that wage growth is cooling. There is also a look at softening consumer confidence and a dip in retail sales.
The month in numbers
The OBR cut its growth forecast for the year to 1.1 per cent, and that was before the conflict broke out, so the figures were arguably out of date the moment they were read out. The OECD went further, trimming its UK forecast to 0.7 per cent. The Bank held rates at 3.75 per cent in a unanimous vote, with some members hinting a rise could be needed if energy prices keep climbing. Pay growth slowed to 3.8 per cent, its weakest in more than five years, and retail sales slipped back as confidence weakened.
